Went out earlier with the intention of getting a few things fixed, but didn't manage to get any of them done. Still to do

• Put air in the tires

• Get the gas & heating working

• Get covers for the windows

The Van Cheat Sheet

Gas

• There's a huge red gas canister below the van on the driver side. There is some way to turn the gas on or off from that canister itself - you have to lie down on the outside of the van.

• In addition to that, there are three knobs under the sink that control the flow of gas. I believe one of them is for the fridge, the other is for the hob, and the other is for the heating.

Hospital experience today was a reminder of why I love Amsterdam. It was a 5 minute drive, everyone we dealt with was competent, thorough, and good at communicating - it's remarkable how consistent this is across the Dutch population. The queue in front of us was 3 people, maybe a 20 minute wait, less for the second appointment. Just an all-round painless experience.

The Extinction Scenario

This is more of a brain dump of random strands of thought than an article-that-makes-a-point.

Premise: There's a lot of talk of "AI doom" - a scenario where an AI is created, that wipes out humans, either through malevolence or by-accident-when-given-a-goal.

Background Ideas

The Destruction Equation

Humans are pretty well distributed around the planet. In any scenario where all humans get wiped out, there are three things that would be needed.

• The word "Bomb" in this diagram is can be taken to mean "anything that can wipe out all humans". Currently in this category we have state owned nuclear arsenal and advanced bioweapons.

• Accessibility of the trigger: How easy is it for someone to access, for example a bioweapon or a state's nuclear codes.

• Forcefulness of the human: How much will does the person have to follow through. If the trigger is accessible enough, all it would take is someone having a bad day. If the trigger is extremely protected, it would take enormous effort, organization and co-ordination to access it.

If the question is whether an AI can trigger this, we can replace "Human" with "Agent", which in this case means an entity with agency and intelligence.

The Forcefulness Equation

Zooming in further on the left side, in order for an entity to successfully trigger catastrophe, they would need to

• Reach a conclusion that they should trigger it (likely with some underpinning theory of why).

• Figure out how they could trigger it

• Remain in an observe-narrate-act loop for long enough to undertake all of the actions required (avoid being "shut off")

A model is not an ego-centric brain

How Easy Is It To Destroy all of Humanity?

This is an exploration of the likelihood of AI extincting humans and an add-on to this article: The Extinction Scenario

Streams this week

• 24 Tax return: Ieke responded about the updated return with the overseas holding companies included. Return now submitted

• 24 Irish Returns: Got docs signed & Emma submitted both Fuse & Tonic returns to CRO.

Week 48

Monday: Got response on our offer for Prinsengracht & it was a rejection. Super bummed out. Called them - they chose another family because of both offer amount and their profile. Learning: next time bid higher & include a letter.

Tuesday: Viewed place beside Volkshotel - lovely with high ceilings but not enough rooms. Told the agent we were looking and he said he'd send on another place near Vondelpark that's not on market yet & is much bigger