Christmas eve eve was really nice. Faith & Warda made pasta, we played impostor & drank wine & soju. Had the Once soundtrack playing (crazy that's from 2007). Then we decided to open some of our gifts early. We put on Knives Out 3 at about 10pm, and made it half way through before Neo was bored and Warda was asleep. So we decided to pause and come back to it. Added a bunch of snaps to my story and created a new highlight for Dec 25.

Call from American Express - "We will cancel your card if you don't provide us with information as soon as possible"

• Background: Amex stopped working a few weeks ago with no notice

• Agent says it's because my account is in review - I should have received an email about it - checked my inbox, I received no email

• She re-sends the email - immediately poke.com (my AI assistant) sends me an SMS saying "This is likely a phishing scam" - the domain doesn't point anywhere and they're requesting documents. So now I have to figure out if it's legit (I believe it actually is because they've called me from this number before).

• I'm on holiday, but she tells me if I don't send them bank account statements asap they're going to close my account.

• "Why is it in review in the first place" - "You were late paying your last few overdrafts"

Progress: Figured out where to find LPG & how to use the pump, and filled up the tank. Moved it beside the house. Got Daan in to look at it. Figured out the issue with the heating. Decided not to have Daan re-jig the desk.

Thinking: The van still doesn't have any real draw & doesn't feel "home-y" enough for me to want to spend any time in it. It would be great to have it feel like that for any of: Doing Deep Work, Doing Calls, Hanging in the evening. The lowest hanging fruit here is to fix the desk. Initially thought the desk was this, but it'll cost over a grand and still be hitting my knees. So know I'm thinking let's make it cosy and/or sufficient for doing work from the couch.

Actions

• ✓ Ask Daan if it's possible to modify the desk

Thinking: Now that I'm doing more work on it, I wanted to revisit the idea of keeping the van & how that would work. The conclusion is that there's a massive amount of work & cost involved. In order to legally drive it here, I'd have to pay a few grand to import it, pay a few grand in tax per year, and pay a few grand to get my C1 license here. It would also then become very difficult to sell (being both overweight and a right-hand drive), so after I'd have to re-import it back to Ireland and likely pay VRT again before selling it. So my options are:

• Cut losses, bring it back to Dublin & sell it

• Double down - go through the admin in the Netherlands

There's still a big part of me that's excited about the idea of actually having it, in a state that I'm excited to use it, and where I know it's fully legal to drive around and I'm not apprehensive about that. In particular using it to work from, do calls during the day etc. That may also just be subconscious loss aversion.

What I'll do

• Do a little more work on it over the christmas - couch back, fix heating, make it cosy etc. I'll need this to sell it anyway.

• Keep it near the house and try to start using it for work, calls etc.

• Plan to drive it back to Ireland late January, do CVRT & make a call

The Van State of Play Document

Facts

• My van is about 4100 kg.

• I have a Philippine Driving License.

• The Philippines has slightly different vehicle weight rules than Europe for handling driver's licenses.

Risks

• In a worst case scenario, if I get pulled over in the Netherlands, there are 3 things they won't like:

  • I'm officially a Dutch Resident but I'm driving a vehicle with foreign plates. Technically once you become a Dutch resident you're not allowed drive a foreign vehicle. This is a tax violation because you should be paying tax on this vehicle.

  • I've officially lived here for over 185 days and I'm still driving on a foreign license (technically you need to convert to a Dutch license asap).

  • I'm driving a vehicle that would be considered "C Category" in Europe, but my license is technically "B Category" license. (This is murkier because of the license thing).

Penalties

• For driving a vehicle without a Dutch license plate...

  • First offence: Warning + requirement to import or remove vehicle

  • Subsequent offence: BPM + MRB back-taxes (up to 5 years) + penalty up to 100% of taxes owed

  • Real case examples show total assessments of €8,000–€13,000+ including penalties

• For driving on a foreign license...

  • €430 fine (Article 107 WVW – "wrong category/invalid")

• For "driving a category C vehicle on a category B license" (murky)...

  • Penalty: €430 fine (same Article 107 – "verkeerde categorie")

  • Insurance risk: Insurer may refuse coverage or pursue recovery if accident occurs

Costs & Process

• Area	Cost	Effort
  Getting a C1 License	€1,500–€2,500	2–4 months (theory + practical exams)
  Getting Dutch License Plate	€2,100–€3,400 (BPM €1,200–€2,000 + fees €200–€500 + first year MRB €700–€900)	RDW inspection, BPM declaration, potential taxatie report
  Ongoing MRB (Road Tax)	€700–€900/year (2025) → €1,400–€1,800/year (2026+)	Annual, automatic – camper half-tariff from 2026

Takeaways & Plan

• Voluntary compliance now costs ~€4,000–€6,000 total (licence + import)

• Getting caught after 2–3 years could cost €6,000–€12,000 (taxes + penalties)

• Resale problem: RHD + Dutch plates + 4,100 kg = 20–30% value loss (€6,000–€9,000 on €30k van)

• Three realistic options:

  • Go Dutch: High upfront cost, ongoing MRB, painful resale

  • Keep Irish, store in Ireland: No cost, but can't use van in NL

  • Sell in Ireland

Email from Bank Of Ireland to update my KYC info. Pretty extreme wording & requires documents I don't have to hand. And again, they will close my account if I don't provide them. No email address to respond to, no way to get in touch with anyone. Just a docusign document with a file upload.

Gift Ideas

Clothing

• This is high risk but I've done a brain dump on what I like and don't like here

Electronics

• One thing I never seem to run out of is charger plugs like this one which are A) Super small, B) From a reliable brand, C) 65w or higher, and D) Have 2 usb-c outlets. I don't like the ones that work in every country because they're so clunky, so I tend to just have each of the 3 different plug type - EU, IE, and US. The EU one is usually best to have multiple of - I only really need one of each of the other types.

Other

Resintek "Liquid Wax": I found this in the Philippines and it's by far the best hair product I've used. I used to buy it on Amazon NL but it looks like they stopped selling it, and I also checked a half dozen online stores where it's also out of stock, so we may need to go the international route. Seb man has other products but it's this one specifically - in the pointy applicator bottle, that I'm looking for

• Link One

• 

Today's issue related to Revolut.

• Receive email - "You need to update your info to keep using the service"

• Click through, scan qr code, open the app.

• Brings me to a UI to add my details. Looks like it's for the trading account specifically.

• The only unfilled field is Nationality.

• Click in, select Ireland, go back to main screen.

• But the main screen still hasn't updated, and still shows "Add Nationality"

• Repeat this 4 or 5 times - doesn't work

• Now I have to spend time reaching out to live chat, explaining the issue, because of a bug they have. And if I don't do that they threaten to shut down my account 🤦‍♂️

Went out earlier with the intention of getting a few things fixed, but didn't manage to get any of them done. Still to do

• Put air in the tires

• Get the gas & heating working

• Get covers for the windows

The Van Cheat Sheet

Gas

• There's a huge red gas canister below the van on the driver side. There is some way to turn the gas on or off from that canister itself - you have to lie down on the outside of the van.

• In addition to that, there are three knobs under the sink that control the flow of gas. I believe one of them is for the fridge, the other is for the hob, and the other is for the heating.

Hospital experience today was a reminder of why I love Amsterdam. It was a 5 minute drive, everyone we dealt with was competent, thorough, and good at communicating - it's remarkable how consistent this is across the Dutch population. The queue in front of us was 3 people, maybe a 20 minute wait, less for the second appointment. Just an all-round painless experience.

The Extinction Scenario

This is more of a brain dump of random strands of thought than an article-that-makes-a-point.

Premise: There's a lot of talk of "AI doom" - a scenario where an AI is created, that wipes out humans, either through malevolence or by-accident-when-given-a-goal.

Background Ideas

The Destruction Equation

Humans are pretty well distributed around the planet. In any scenario where all humans get wiped out, there are three things that would be needed.

• The word "Bomb" in this diagram is can be taken to mean "anything that can wipe out all humans". Currently in this category we have state owned nuclear arsenal and advanced bioweapons.

• Accessibility of the trigger: How easy is it for someone to access, for example a bioweapon or a state's nuclear codes.

• Forcefulness of the human: How much will does the person have to follow through. If the trigger is accessible enough, all it would take is someone having a bad day. If the trigger is extremely protected, it would take enormous effort, organization and co-ordination to access it.

If the question is whether an AI can trigger this, we can replace "Human" with "Agent", which in this case means an entity with agency and intelligence.

The Forcefulness Equation

Zooming in further on the left side, in order for an entity to successfully trigger catastrophe, they would need to

• Reach a conclusion that they should trigger it (likely with some underpinning theory of why).

• Figure out how they could trigger it

• Remain in an observe-narrate-act loop for long enough to undertake all of the actions required (avoid being "shut off")

A model is not an ego-centric brain

How Easy Is It To Destroy all of Humanity?

This is an exploration of the likelihood of AI extincting humans and an add-on to this article: The Extinction Scenario

Streams this week

• 24 Tax return: Ieke responded about the updated return with the overseas holding companies included. Return now submitted

• 24 Irish Returns: Got docs signed & Emma submitted both Fuse & Tonic returns to CRO.

Week 48

Monday: Got response on our offer for Prinsengracht & it was a rejection. Super bummed out. Called them - they chose another family because of both offer amount and their profile. Learning: next time bid higher & include a letter.

Tuesday: Viewed place beside Volkshotel - lovely with high ceilings but not enough rooms. Told the agent we were looking and he said he'd send on another place near Vondelpark that's not on market yet & is much bigger